The Phillies have had pretty decent years over the past 3 seasons. As far as bettors were concerned, the 2005 season was pretty good for these Phillies as they won their backers 4 units as opposed to losing them 18 units over the previous 3 seasons. Did the public get tired of all the close finishes of the Phillies and stop betting them?
There is evidence to suggest that the public were more likely to lay of the Phillies in 2005 as opposed to the previous two years. The reason for this really boils down to their performance as a favorite of -130 or higher. You know, the public loves betting favorites and when these Phillies were -130 or higher favorite, they were 6% worse on the season than last year and lost their backers 4 units. At home as a favorite in that range, they lost their backers 5 units. Therefore when we saw the Phillies as a dog, few people backed them even though that was where the money lied.
The Phillies were a dismal 10-22 [-15 units] at home as a small favorite or dog in 2004 but improved to 19-15 [+5 units] in 2005. Kudos to them for improving their home field advantage but they need some veteran leadership on their pitching staff and with their hitters to improve on the road. Bobby Abreu cannot do everything.
As you bet the 2006 MLB season, look for spots to bet on the Phillies on the road. Over the past 2 seasons, they won their backers 14 units on the road. Being bad at home or on the road does not necessarily mean you always bet against them. If public opinion is that they are bad, then going for them can usually be where the value lies. Hopefully they can improve their 42 wins on the road from last season.
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